About Horizon GeoRisk
We are developing Horizon GeoRisk to help professionals understand geopolitical change and its implications for investment, reporting and strategic decisions.
Our starting point is integration: examining events, observable signals and competing narratives together to understand where they converge, where they conflict and how they affect the assessment.
A news report, a change in flight patterns and unusual shipping activity may each reveal something important. Their significance becomes clearer when examined together.
Comparing observations from the same place and period can reveal relationships that a single source would miss.
The analysis begins with a claim or event, examines its sources and observable signals, and considers the wider scenarios it may help explain.
Horizon GeoRisk is being designed to make that path inspectable: from the source record to the reasoning behind an assessment.
Our approach distinguishes observations, interpretations and forecasts. Each answers a different question: what has been observed, what it could mean and what may happen next.
Alternative explanations, contradictory evidence and limits in source coverage remain part of the assessment.
Probabilities concern a defined outcome over a stated period. Where an estimate cannot be supported, the limitation should be explicit. Revisions should record what changed and why.
Which geopolitical developments could affect an investment thesis, and through what channels?
Our initial focus is on connecting events with potential disruption to sectors, assets and supply chains. The aim is to help investment professionals examine which assumptions are exposed, how disruption might reach relevant assets and what evidence would warrant reassessment.
What supports a developing story, and how much confidence does that evidence warrant?
Our initial focus is on tracing claims, assessing independent corroboration and comparing narratives with observable activity. Our approach distinguishes documented source relationships from inferred similarities.
The aim is to help journalists and editors decide what is sufficiently supported to report, what needs qualification and where further investigation would be most valuable.
Founder, Horizon GeoRisk
Claudio Pedretti is an entrepreneur and international business advisor with more than 25 years of experience as a founder, CEO and board leader. He leads Horizon Strategies as Founder & Managing Director, with a focus on international strategy and business development.
He brings a business decision-maker’s perspective to Horizon GeoRisk: understanding how geopolitical developments can affect the assumptions, exposures and choices facing an organisation.
His vision for the platform centres on comparative analysis and interdisciplinary thinking, making complex evidence more accessible while keeping uncertainty explicit.
Horizon StrategiesHorizon GeoRisk is guided by a practical ambition: to make complex evidence accessible and useful while keeping uncertainty visible.
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